Page 7 CRF_News_2Q_2017.pdf Full Version
							
                                  Exhibit 9
Total Consumer Debt, Total Revolving and Non-revolving Consumer Debt: Monthly: 1968-2017
$4,000,000.00 $3,500,000.00 $3,000,000.00 $2,500,000.00 $2,000,000.00 $1,500,000.00 $1,000,000.00
$500,000.00
$-
1968-01 1971-05 1974-09 1978-01 1981-05 1984-09 1988-01 1991-05 1994-09 1998-01 2001-05 2004-09 2008-01 2011-05 2014-09
Total Revolving Nonrevolving
               2008. Since then, the
use of non- revolving consumer credit seems to have increased,
yet the use of revolving credit has remained more or less the same in dollar terms.
The flattening
of the use
of revolving
credit has had
a significant
impact on
retailing.
Consumers now are less likely to carry high credit card balances. The disruption in the
credit markets back in 2008 led to a tightening of credit standards, and reduced access to credit, particularly at the lower end of the income spectrum.
While it might appear that the increased use of non-revolving credit should give the economy a boost, it is important to note that an increasingly larger share of this credit has taken the form
of student loans since 2006. As can be seen in Exhibit
10, student
loans are now
over 50% of overall non- revolving credit outstanding, having grown from less than 35% of that volume since 2006.
What does this all mean?
When it comes down to it, the key question is not whether consumers
will return to buying in such
7 Data source: United States Federal Reserve; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Database
a way as to restore growth to on-ground, and even online retailing in the future, but rather: what will consumers purchase in the future
and where
will those
76
purchases be made?
 Shifiting income demographics have begun
to erode the customer base of the traditional middle market on-ground
retailers. The industry is most likely headed
for more of a shake-out in the near future, as these trends seem unlikely to reverse in a slow growth economy. Even some of the more upscale retailers may have cause for concern as upper middle income consumers in the age ranges of 35-54 seek to purchase more goods online. The most assured growth opportunities appear to
be in the lower end of the retail markets, where on-ground retailers appear to continue to do
well, and are somewhat favored by the shifting
household
and income demographics.
Online
shopping will, undoubtedly, continue
to grow, especially as the
population ages, and the current generation of 35-54 year olds continue their online shopping activities into retirement. As this group ages, however, they may be inclined to spend less overall, and
therefore less online, which may cause growth to slow somewhat in this segment of the market.
  55.00%
50.00%
45.00%
40.00%
35.00%
30.00%
Exhibit 10
Student Loan as a Percentage of Non-revolving Credit: Quarterly: 2006-2017
       Student PCT Non revolving
   7
©2017 Credit Research Foundation
2006-03 2006-06 2006-09 2006-12 2007-03 2007-06 2007-09 2007-12 2008-03 2008-06 2008-09 2008-12 2009-03 2009-06 2009-09 2009-12 2010-03 2010-06 2010-09 2010-12 2011-03 2011-06 2011-09 2011-12 2012-03 2012-06 2012-09 2012-12 2013-03 2013-06 2013-09 2013-12 2014-03 2014-06 2014-09 2014-12 2015-03 2015-06 2015-09 2015-12 2016-03 2016-06 2016-09 2016-12 2017-03
$MM